In a high-impact session on CNBC Awaaz at 10:30 AM this morning (December 30, 2025), veteran market technician Sushil Kedia, Founder of Kedianomics, delivered a comprehensive masterclass on the global currency landscape. His analysis—marked by his signature “price is king” philosophy—paints a picture of a structural “regime change” in the Indian Rupee (INR) and the US Dollar (USD) that most traditional market participants are still failing to grasp.

Clocking in as a definitive guide for the 2026 investment cycle, this blog post synthesizes Kedia’s latest views with global macro perspectives from other leading international experts.

The Great Currency Pivot: Decoding Sushil Kedia’s USD/INR Blueprint for 2026

1. The “Moment of Truth”: Why 91.50 is Not Just a Number

This morning, the Indian Rupee hit a fresh low of 91.55. While many analysts characterize this as a “slide,” Kedia calls it a “technical blast.” During his 10:30 AM interview, he emphasized that the USD/INR pair has entered a parabolic phase.

Kedia’s Core Thesis:

Structural Breakout: The Rupee has decisively broken the long-standing 83–88 range. Kedia argues that when a currency pair breaks a multi-year consolidation, the move isn’t finished in a few days.
The Target Zone: He is now looking at 93.00 to 94.00 as the next logical technical destination for the USD/INR.
The Federal Reserve Mirage: While the world waits for the Fed to cut rates, Kedia points out that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is ignoring the “dovish pivot” narrative. The charts show a “vacuum effect” where global capital is being sucked into the US Dollar, regardless of interest rate differentials.

2. The DXY “Blast-Off”: Targets of 112 and 120

Kedia’s outlook is predicated on a massive bullish reversal in the US Dollar Index (DXY). He has been vocal about the DXY reaching 112 in the near term, with a medium-term stretch target of 120.

Why this matters: A DXY at 120 would represent a level of dollar dominance not seen in decades. This would create an “extinction event” for many weaker emerging market currencies. Kedia warns that “Holi tak hangama, Diwali tak diwala” (Uproar by Holi, bankruptcy by Diwali)—implying that the volatility sparked by this dollar move will wash out leveraged players by the end of 2026.

3. International Context: Are Global Experts Agreeing?

Sushil Kedia’s “Dollar Bull” stance is finding unexpected allies among global macro-strategists who previously were bearish.

Barclays Research: In a recent report, Barclays analysts echoed Kedia’s sentiment, setting a target of 94.00 for the USD/INR by late 2026. They cite the breach of the RBI’s “line in the sand” at 88.80 as a sign that the central bank is allowing a market-determined depreciation.
The “Dollar Smile” Theory: Analysts at J.P. Morgan and UBS have noted that the “Dollar Smile” is currently in its right-wing phase—where the dollar strengthens because the US economy is outperforming the rest of the world (US Exceptionalism).
The Contrarian View: Conversely, some institutions like Credit Agricole expect a mean reversion toward 86.00. However, Kedia dismisses these as “fundamental wishful thinking,” stating that technical charts do not support a return to sub-88 levels anytime soon.

The Kedianomics Portfolio: 2026 Stock Recommendations

In today’s 10:30 AM interview, Kedia was specific about where to hide—and where to seek profit—as the Rupee weakens.

A. The Export Powerhouse: IT Services

Kedia remains ultra-bullish on the IT sector, describing it as a “double-engine” play: earnings growth plus a currency tailwind.

Top Picks: TCS and Infosys.
The Logic: “IT companies earn in dollars and spend in rupees. At 92–94 USD/INR, their margins will surprise the market,” Kedia noted. He believes the sector could see a 20-30% re-rating purely on currency gains.

B. The “Dark Horse”: Textiles

One of the most surprising calls today was a high-conviction bet on Textiles.

Target: A potential 70% upside in selected names.
The Thesis: As global supply chains shift away from high-cost regions, India’s textile exporters become hyper-competitive with a 91+ Rupee.

C. Quality & MNC Safety

Kedia warns against “cheap” stocks, advocating for “quality at any price.”

P&G Health and Gillette: He recommends these MNC giants as “fear trades.” When the currency is volatile, investors flock to companies with global balance sheets and pricing power.
BSE Ltd: Kedia remains bullish with a target of 3,600, provided it holds the 2,300 support level. He views the exchange as a play on the increasing financialization of Indian savings, which continues regardless of currency moves.

D. Infrastructure & Energy

GMR Airports: A specific technical pick with a target of 120.
Reliance Industries: While not a “buy at all levels,” he views it as a structural anchor for the Nifty, which he still believes is on a path to 28,000.

Deep Analysis: The “Yen Carry Trade” Connection

A critical part of Kedia’s analysis involves the Japanese Yen. He predicts a massive 20-25% slump in the Yen, which would trigger the “unwinding” of global carry trades.

The Ripple Effect: When the Yen carry trade unwinds, hedge funds sell their “risk assets” (Indian equities, Emerging Markets) to pay back their Yen loans.
The Result: This creates a temporary but violent sell-off in the Nifty (potentially back to 23,000) while simultaneously pumping the US Dollar as a safe haven. Kedia’s strategy is to use this dip to buy the “Currency Winners” mentioned above.

Conclusion: The 2026 Investor’s Manifesto

Sushil Kedia’s message on CNBC Awaaz this morning was one of technical realism. The Rupee at 91 is not an accident; it is a precursor to a stronger Dollar regime.

Summary for the Strategic Investor:

Stop Fighting the Trend: Accept that the Rupee is in a new, weaker range (91–94).
Hedge via Equities: If you have dollar liabilities (education, travel), your equity portfolio should be skewed toward IT and Export-oriented MNCs.
Watch the DXY: The Dollar Index is the “Master Chart.” As long as it stays above 106, the pressure on the Rupee remains. If it hits 112, prepare for the “Hangama” (Uproar) Kedia predicts.

As we head into the final hours of 2025, the “Kedianomics” view suggests that 2026 will be the year of the Technical Trader. Fundamentals will take a backseat to the raw momentum of the global currency war.

Expert Source Credits:

Sushil Kedia, Founder of Kedianomics (CNBC Awaaz 10:30 AM Live, Dec 30, 2025)
Barclays Global Research (Currency Outlook 2026)
DXY Technical Charts (TradingView Analysis)
Anuj Singhal, CNBC Awaaz (Market Context & Institutional Views)

Sushil Kedia’s forecast on 2026 markets and currency